Mitch Silver speaks about our changing demographics and urban planning

Date: 

Tuesday, November 22, 2011 - 5:30pm to 7:00pm

Location: 

Town Hall, 405 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd., Chapel Hill

Via e-mail from Chapel Hill 2020 co-chair Rosemary Waldorf:

Recently I heard a presentation by Mitch Silver, Raleigh's planning director and current president of the American Planning Association, on what the new census tells us about our changing demographics and how these changes might influence (in a rational, forward looking way) urban planning. It was an extremely dynamic, thought provoking presentation, and highly relevant to the many issues we are dealing with as part of Chapel Hill 2020. We are thrilled to report that Mitch has agreed to come to Chapel Hill and give this presentation on Tuesday, Nov. 22, at 5:30 pm in the Council Chambers. With Q&A, the event will last 60-90 minutes, depending on how many Qs.

Please put this on your calendars. I promise you, it will be very engaging. And Mitch has agreed to do an analysis of Chapel Hill, using latest census info. Staff is working on plans to both advertise and tape the event. Below is Mitch's description of the lecture and his bio.

Rosemary Waldorf

Title of Lecture: What you need to know about the Demographic in the 21st Century 

The demographics trends will have significant implications on how communities across the country plan for the future. This lecture will discuss the demographic trends and emerging issues and how to have a community conversation about what to do now and how to plan for the future.  

Bio: 

Mitchell Silver is president of the American Planning Association (APA). As APA president, he leading the effort to revive planning to be one of the most relevant professions in the 21st Century. Mr. Silver is also the Chief Planning & Economic Development Officer and Planning Director for Raleigh, North Carolina. Mr. Silver is an award-winning planner with over 25 years of experience in the public and private sectors. He is nationally recognized for his leadership in the planning profession and his contributions to contemporary planning issues. Mr. Silver is a contributing editor and author of ICMA's "Local Planning: Contemporary Principles and Practice," which was released in February 2009.

Known by his colleagues as a creative thinker, problem-solver and visionary leader, Mitchell has been at the center of many cutting edge trends, innovative solutions and visionary plans.  As planning director in Raleigh, he is led the comprehensive plan update process to create a vibrant 21st century city with a modern transit system, great streets, great places and great neighborhoods. He is now overseeing a rewrite of the City's Development Code.  

 

Comments

This is a quick late-breaking plug for Mitch Silver's talk this evening.  I have seen him do a version of this presentation elsewhere and I think he does a great job explaining the considerable demographic shifts that are coming. (one mini-spoiler: the number of households with children will be a much, much smaller proportion of all householdsin the future than today, and even more so in comparison to the 1950s when the suburban development model was pioneered. What does that mean for the housing stock we need?)If you can make it, definitely go listen to what he has to say.  

I'd love to go to this but have a family conflict. I hope someone will blog or tweet the event.  As a school board member I'm interested in projections regarding the
growth and/or reduction of households with kids.  I would want
to know if that type of projection takes into account the quality of the
local school system or is a more universal projection. 

I will be there, but so will my 2-year-old son so my attention will be divided at best. I think some of the other OP Posse will live blog. Others who attend are welcome to join in. 

Somebody from the town said they'll try to get the slides put up somewhere, and it was video'd.  It is worth watching the 1st hour for sure (his presentation -- the questions weren't as useful).Not all of the #s (especially projections) were from our local community.  For example, he talked about 2023 as when America will no longer be majority white.  While CH itself isn't there yet, it is worth noting that our school system opened this year at 49.5% students who are white. (http://chccs.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=2&clip_id=54&meta_id=4549) He did note interesting trends like the growth areas of population overall -- over 65 and young adults (Gen Y children of Baby Boomers) -- more prefer "urban living" (my term, not his) because of access.  Of course, we've seen more families living in rentals given economic situation so some of those trends are less noticeable in our community.

I think the overall thrust of the data is that broadly speaking in the US, the percentage of households with children is falling and will continue to do so. Surely in a community with a highly attractive school district, this will be mitigated to some degree; by how much is a good public policy question to grapple with.At the same time, one of the other high correlates with lower fertility rates is a higher level of educational attainment among women. Orange County has some of the highest levels of BA and advanced degrees in NC and the US among both genders. I don't have data but would guess that fertility rates in Orange are lower than other counties due to this distribution of educational attainment in our population.

 

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